Dead Center

By Moshe Feiglin Av, 5767 July, '07 Translated from the "Yisraeli" daily newspaper. Sometimes, our instincts work against us. We sense danger and immediately slam on the brakes. It makes sense, but in some situations, this action will lead to the opposite result; instead of keeping away from the danger, we will skid directly into it. A good driver who has experienced this once or twice teaches himself to react differently. But not everybody knows how to do that. In her book, "The March of Folly," historian Barbara Tuchman examines four conflicts in which political leaders acted in total contradiction to their self interest. They slammed on the brakes and brought catastrophe upon themselves and their nations. The Israeli Right is in precisely this situation. The National Camp enjoys a natural numerical advantage over the Left. The majority of Israel's public tends to lean in the traditional, nationalist direction. Why then, has the Right consistently contracted? The accepted approach is that in order to win elections, the Right must always gravitate toward the voters of the Center. According to this theory, the more that the Right dons the mask of "Left-lite," the more votes it will gain. Reality, though, shows just the opposite. When the Right retains its traditional positions, it wins more mandates than the Left. But as soon as it begins to lean leftward, it loses votes: ( Red shows Labor, blue shows Likud and red-blue shows Kadimah) In 1981 the Likud had 48 Knesset mandates - exactly four times what it has today. But then, Begin decided to fulfill the policies of the Left. The destruction of Yamit and retreat from Sinai decreased the Likud's popularity to 41 mandates in the elections of '84, bringing Labor to power with 44 mandates. In 1988 the Likud won the elections with 40 mandates but Shamir - under pressure from the Left - went to the Madrid Conference and began indirect talks with the PLO. The left turn, however, did not translate into votes. On the contrary - in the elections of 1992, Shamir lost the elections to the Labor's Yitzchak Rabin. In 1996 Binyamin Netanyahu defeated Shimon Peres. The public expected Netanyahu to eradicate the Oslo blunder. But instead, he warmly shook Arafat's hand, signed the Wye Accords and perpetuated Oslo. This time, the sharp turn left dashed the Likud, leaving it with only 19 mandates in 1999. The Arab uprising of 2000 left Barak and Labor with only 19 mandates in the 2003 elections, as the Likud returned to rule with 38 mandates. But Sharon, elected to defeat the enemy, made a total about-face and destroyed Gush Katif. The public despaired of any nationalist alternative to the Left's ideology and the Likud shrunk to an unprecedented 12 mandates in 2005. Has the National Camp learned anything from these facts? Of course not. It still believes that it needs to be more "center." Dead center.

Manhigut Yehudit The Jewish Leadership Movement Email: office@jewishisrael.org Web: www.jewishisrael.org Tel: 02-996-1123 (Israel); 516-295-3222 (USA)

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