Olmert: An Out-Of-The-Box Analysis

Olmert Won't Fall Fast
I do not think that Olmert will fall in the near future. Furthermore, he may even come out of his legal ordeal stronger than ever. After Talansky's testimony, Olmert's political career should have been finished. But we live in a culture of betrayal. Ethics do not matter - only the law does. And Olmert is a sly and seasoned lawyer. He knows just how to manage with the "rule of law" that has replaced the rule of truth, justice and ethics.

Olmert learned a very important lesson from Sharon. No matter how much you abuse the public, and even if a solid majority of your own party opposes you, if you persevere and hang on - and if there is no real alternative for PM - the public will vote for you once again.

The nation thirsts for leadership. If an unscrupulous leader runs his government like a mafia don, the public will temporarily reject him. But if nobody manages to depose him, it will ultimately be in awe of the "leader who outmaneuvered everybody."

We might be hearing some incriminating testimony now, but that will not be enough. The Likud has not presented itself as a meaningful alternative. Netanyahu's popularity is about the same as Tzippy Livni's, at a time when an Opposition leader with a true alternative vision should be galvanizing the nation to make a much-needed change.

And so as illogical as it may seem, I don't think that we have seen the last of Olmert. Furthermore, if the Likud does not clearly express its national identity, it is doubtful if it will win the next elections.

Beware the Next War of Deception

Clearly, Olmert's next step will be to flee the investigation - by running straight into Gaza. To give up Jerusalem or the Golan he needs the cooperation of others - such as the Syrians - and that can get tricky. But to throw our children into the alleys of Jebalyah, all that he has to do is whistle. It is that simple. After we ran away from Gaza, Olmert is about to send our children back there for a big, pointless military operation that will only increase the rain of missiles on the Western Negev and according to estimates, send at least 100 soldiers home dead, G-d forbid. At the end of the Great Military Operation the IDF will retreat from Gaza, and if the missiles had stopped in the interim, they will be back. The rabbis will encourage their students to fight for the glory of the nation and nobody except the grieving families will remember the dead soldiers. And nobody will remember Olmert's investigation, either.

Now is the time to prepare for the coming war of deception. When the army orders arrive, it will be too late.

Judicial Tyranny

I don't think that it is proper to investigate a prime minister while he is in office. Not that I have anything good to say about Olmert. I know that he is corrupt and I have absolutely no good wishes for the prime minister responsible for Amona. But on principle, I think that there is a serious flaw in the fact that he is being investigated while he is in office.

What has actually taken place here is that a very small group of judiciary officials - a group that was not elected by the public and whose motives are completely unknown - suddenly decides to investigate the man who the public has elected to lead the country. In other words, a collection of technocrats has more power than the public. They can depose or change the officials elected by the public as they see fit.

I do not know whey they have sunk their fangs into Olmert and his unexplained wealth, but that is not important. What is important is that the power to choose leaders has been removed from the public and placed firmly under the control of "the rule of law gang," as former Justice Minister Chaim Ramon so aptly described them.

I have the uneasy feeling that the suspicions against the family of the current Chief Justice will never develop into a thorough and unbiased investigation. In other words, the judicial branch of government has taken a huge slice of the power pie and is using it to control the legislative and executive branches of government. I intensely dislike Olmert - but at least he has to be elected by the public. The "rule of law gang," on the other hand, has taken control without even looking in my direction.

An elected prime minister or government minister should have immunity from police investigations for suspected offenses committed before his election. Unusual cases should be brought before the Knesset, where a special majority would have to authorize an investigation. When the official in question finishes his term of office, the investigation would proceed. The media should be allowed to continue to report on findings pertaining to the case, and the public should be allowed to decide whether or not to vote for the official once again.

If we do not insist on proper judicial conduct now, we will surely pay for it later, when the "rule of law gang" will depose yet another - probably rightist - government.