Gaza: A Likely Scenario

Israel is on the brink of difficult times. We will need all of our emotional strength to deal with the expected frustration. Remember that we predicted the oncoming reality some time back. Most important, remember that we have a solution. If we internalize that fact, Israel will look to us for leadership. During the primaries, we saw the first signs of the nation looking to us for leadership. With G-d's help, that appeal will gain momentum.

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"I heard that you oppose sending ground troops into Gaza. Is that really true?" a leftist Meretz member asked me the other day.

"Yes, it's true," I answered.

"Why?"

"Because we're going to lose," I replied.

"But we're winning," she questioned.

"Let's say that you're the Hamas," I said.

O.k.

"What do you have to do in order to win?"

There was a short silence.
"Nothing," she answered.

"Now you understand," I said to her.

*

We stand in awe at the self-sacrifice, the holiness and the inspiring unity flowing in the veins of our amazing soldiers and in the hearts of the entire nation that - in a surge of national health - has eagerly gone to battle to defeat its enemies. But all of these holy energies are stifled - under the control of leadership that does not believe in our nation, not in our land and not in our G-d and His Torah. As a result, it cannot formulate worthy goals and it cannot win.

The same leadership that destroyed Gush Katif has sent our sons back to fight there. If they had admitted their mistake, we could possibly delude ourselves that the self-sacrifice of our sons would be used to achieve just and intelligent political gain. But sad to say, just the opposite is true. It is much more likely that the result of this Disengagement War (and the ascent of the new government in Washington) will be a new process of retreat.

When one side is fighting for its right to this land while the other side is fighting for its right to defend itself, one side will win the land (G-d forbid) while the other side will (possibly) win the right to defend itself - in Uganda. There is no national leader today in Israel who is willing to simply declare that this is our land. Including Gaza. And if we can't say that, we can't win. The real purpose of the current war is not to conquer our land. The real purpose of this war is to re-adjust the post-Disengagement reality so that we can abandon our land without getting hit with missiles.

And that is impossible.

Eventually, the current euphoria will fade into deep frustration. It is likely that the exasperation will be channeled toward the current government and that support for the Likud will grow. If that happens, more and more forces will be drafted to try and improve Israel's situation in Gaza - or at least to create the illusion of improvement - before the elections. But the result of the combat after the enemy's initial shock wears off will always be the same; defeat - as in the Second Lebanon War. The entanglement that will begin to strangle our country will make it very likely that the elections will not be held next month.