The Arab Spring is a Great Opportunity for Israel

By Moshe Feiglin

21 Iyar, 5771
May 25, '11

Translated from the Makor Rishon newspaper

There is a strange factor common to the developing revolutions in the Arab world: They present no real alternative to the existing regime; no ayatollah in exile in Paris is waiting to take the reins of government in any particular country.

The 22 pseudo-states that the West established in the Arabian expanse - states that never really functioned - are simply crumbling before our eyes. Everybody is waiting to see what will develop, but there is just one possibility that is not being considered: The possibility that nothing will develop. In other words, it could be that what we are witnessing is not a process of change - and certainly not a democratic spring, but rather a process of disintegration. It could be that no other national regime will replace the regimes that have fallen or are falling and that the house of cards that somehow functioned for the 70 years since the British and French left the Middle East will simply collapse in a cloud of dust, to be replaced by the old tribal disarray.

It is now approximately seventy years since the notion of artificially attaching state-nation status to Arabian tribes was invented. It has held up for about the same amount of time that the Soviet Union prevailed, and it seems that it will end the same way that Bush's attempt to suture democracy to the Iraqis ended. It will be quite comical to see how the UN will decide to establish an additional Arab state in September, when the 22 others are in advanced stages of collapse.

What does all of this portend for Israel? Great danger and an even greater opportunity.

If we can internalize the fact that we are facing one, large, tribal Arab nation that does not think in terms of national sovereignty, but rather in terms of religious sovereignty, we will be able to develop a completely new foreign policy. The question is not where our border with Syria will lie, but what dominant forces will rule the region.

If when the dust settles, all that will be left of the Arab states is one large Moslem expanse, there is no doubt that Ahmadinijad, Erdogan and other good meaning fellows will be more than happy to stand at the top of the new Moslem caliphate that will stretch from the Euphrates to the Nile. Somehow, I think that this is exactly what they are considering right now. Historically, both these nations have ruled the Mid-East.

September is not the danger. September is simply a milestone in the process of surrounding Israel. The collapse of the Arab state structure will release potent energy and re-arrange the way things have worked until now. Every ruler who will attempt to unite the Arab world around him will use the one proven method to achieve his goal: hatred of Israel.

The economically shaky Western world will want its foothold in the oil-rich expanse and will come to the aid of the Palestinians. If Obama will be re-elected, he will have no qualms about creating a peace coalition that will set sail in our direction. The dissenting congressmen in Washington will not impress him much. Here in Israel the leftist elites will be waiting for the Obama flotilla with open arms.

We can prevent this entire horror movie from playing itself out if we go on the diplomatic offensive. In the immediate political sense, Likud MK Danny Danon's proposal to declare Israeli sovereignty over the settlement blocs in Judea and Samaria is an excellent place to begin and has the backing of many other Likud MKs.

Nationally, we have to internalize the fact that there is life after America. Israel is a regional power in its own right. It is stronger both militarily and economically than any other force opposing it and can extract an intolerable price from any nation in the world that will threaten its sovereignty.

The world will "do business" with whoever takes regional responsibility and knows how to protect itself from external threats. How does America relate to leaders who do not do so? Just ask Mubarak.