Just Passing Through

By Moshe Feiglin

27 Elul, 5771
Sept. 26, 2011

Translated from the Makor Rishon newspaper

It is a mistake to attribute Erdogan's behavior to uncontrollable emotions; it is erroneous to think that he has gone temporarily insane and that soon he will return to the solid ground of reality. Erdogan's actions are the product of cold, strategic calculation. Not only are they very logical, but we can almost say that Israel has left him almost no choice but to follow the course that he has taken.

From the beginning of the Israeli media swoon over the glorious "Arab spring" in Egypt, we explained that what we are really witnessing is the disintegration of the modern Arab nation-states that were forced on the Arab tribes after World War I. These nation-states were actually an arbitrary division of the Arab nation into pseudo-states that, besides building huge armies relative to their size - did nothing else to justify their status as states.

The strategic Middle East is now in a process of "restart." The question is, who will be the dominant factor in this expanse? A vacuum is impossible - certainly in the Middle East. Will we see a return to the old days of colonialism? The West's troubled economy and culture mean that the imperialism of the past is not an option.

And so, Erdogan sits in his presidential suite with a huge state and the second largest army in NATO, armed with the finest of modern weapons and weapons instructors from the US and - thanks to our shortsightedness - from Israel, as well. He sits and he thinks.

"Hmmm. They didn't want to accept me into the European Union; I am big and strong, but the Europeans won't look at me twice. On the other hand, the Middle East is looking for a leader. There are only three states in the Middle East that can fit the bill: Iran, Turkey and Israel. After years of mutual tourism and military cooperation with the Israelis, I know that what is important to them is the good life. They do not see themselves as a regional power. Even though they are the strongest state in the Middle-East, they have removed themselves from the game.

That leaves Iran. Ahmadinijad is certainly interested in becoming the regional sultan. He is already doing everything that he can to achieve that status. If I do not hurry up and make my moves before he does, he will find the right moment to make his appearance with his atomic weapons, will sweep the entire Islamic world after him - and I will find myself part of his Pax Irana.

On the other hand, I still have a great advantage over that cursed Shiite: The doors of the world are open to me. I am a legitimate player and I can beat on Israel with no fear. My belligerence against Israel is really a zero sum game for me. I control the height of the flames. This is the way to pull Egypt and its huge army (and its American weapons, thanks to Uncle Sam and Menachem Begin) into my influence. Together, our military might will convince Iran that it is better to join us than to fight us. Even Stalin understood this principle and went ahead with the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact. If he signed, Ahmadinijad will also sign. Syria, Lebanon and Jordan will then fall into my net like ripe fruit. The oil emirates will acquiesce and in just a short time, I will be the new sultan of the Middle East: the Salah -a -Din who humiliates and drives out the Zionist Crusaders. Oh yes, and of course controls the gas and oil futures. The entire Western world will fall at my feet. We'll see them not accept me into NATO, then.

What about Israel? Well, what I like about Israel is that you can never lose with them. In all their wars, they never really won. In other words, they never really went the entire distance and toppled the regime of the country that attacked them. Ahmadinijad announces that he is going to destroy them and prepares to do just that, provoking them from their border fence with Lebanon - and they don't even lift a finger. The Egyptians burn their embassy - and the Israelis thank them for leaving the security guards alive. I humiliate their tourists to Turkey - and their prime minister promises that our relations will improve. I can safely gather the entire Arab world around me - on Israel's back - completely secure that I will always control the level of belligerence and that Israel will never exact a price from me. Other than running to cry to Obama, of course. They do not see themselves as a regional power. All that I have to do is to smile at them sometime - and they will thank me.

Really, the Israelis leave me with no choice. Either I will rule the Middle East or the Iranians will (also at Israel's expense) and I do not want to be ruled by the Iranians."

Those are Erdogan's thoughts. And now for some of mine:

Why can't Israel see itself as a regional power? Why can't it take advantage of its military and technological edge and encourage countries like Turkey to join it?

The answer is in our consciousness. Israelis feel like visitors in their own home. A guest does not complain about the neighbors. He lets the owner of the house deal with the problem. A direct line leads from the fact that in Israel, it is perfectly acceptable to drive a Jew out of his house while it is unthinkable to do the same to an Arab and from there to Israel's foreign policy, which encourages the world to relate to Israel in exactly the same way. Our "just passing through" mentality has begun to fulfill itself by the forces that surround us. The time that we have left to once again connect to our roots in this Land - is running out.