Excerpts from a Facebook post by marketing expert Senia Waldberg. Translation from Hebrew by Zehut’s Lisa Liel.
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https://www.facebook.com/senia.waldberg/posts/533785240458379
My assessment of the elections, and my recommendation of who to vote for.
So far, I haven't been wrong in my assessments about elections. For Trump at the time, for Bibi, and for the municipal elections.
But I always write them at least a month after the campaign is already intense and I feel how things are going. So right now I have no solid opinion on the results.
What I will do is throw out some quick insights here:
Unlike in previous elections, I actually expect surprises. Not because the people are fed up with Bibi, but because a large part of the people are fed up with *all* the players in the market.
Bottom line: I don't know who will be prime minister in the end, but in my opinion the situation isn't going to be any simpler than with the previous Knesset.
Facebook talkbacks are very misleading, because the biggest fanatics of all the parties are very active. The impression is that they are larger than they actually are.
In practice people are open to hearing, because they are hurting. 60% of the families in Israel are overdrawn on their bank accounts? 65%? Maybe 70%? I don't know. But we're hurting and it's hard for us, and not because the country is poor and there is no abundance.
On the other hand, there is the issue of security, which for a large part of the people is a decisive factor in how they will vote.
The discourse that many of the leaders of the major parties will try to create will be "us or them," precisely so that they vote "to the left or to the right." In practice, from the Zionist camp to Bennett and Shas, you will get more or less the same fodder, including Benny Gantz by the way, who will probably announce his candidacy soon.
Tamar Zandberg is correct that the real left is Meretz, and that a real right does not really exist right now. On the economic side, everyone is left-wing -- Lieberman and Bennett try to disguise themselves as right-wing, but you know it's a bluff.
Avi Gabbai has already raised the banner of "It's Between Me and Bibi". Just like Connor McGregor, but less British. In my opinion, he will do worse than he did than in the previous elections.
The Zionist camp is another socialist party, but mainly impotent and very easy to attack and delegitimize. Mainly because they have no internal discipline. Although the situation has improved somewhat in terms of discipline since Gabbai came, he does not know how to grab the public, especially when he speaks in "best in the house" style slogans.
I doubt that there's anyone who isn't a member of the Labor Party who believes that Gabbai will be prime minister. There aren't just two personalities here; there are 8. The people are very divided into groups, and it couldn't have been otherwise.
Kahlon will try to emphasize his achievements (he lost about half of his power in my opinion). Bennett will try to show his strength and say that he is a "real and strong right." Lieberman will build on the Russians, and Yair Lapid will pray that Gantz will get a stroke and not run. Lapid is going to crash. Not prime minister material.
In my opinion, Benny Gantz will be popular in the polls until he opens his mouth. Right now he's mostly a fantasy, and nothing more. But if he runs, Gabbai and Lapid will be eating a lot of straw!
"To conquer the world mounted on a horse is easy, to control it is harder."
--Genghis Khan, on the supporters of Ganz.
The public is frustrated because it is finally beginning to really understand how rotten politics are. We've lost our innocence, and Bibi's war, the media, and the left have been decisive factors.
Until a month ago, I just got confused about everyone and thought I didn't really care who I should campaign for. Whoever pays the most money wins. After all, we live in a socialist and corrupt country (corrupt because it is socialist and those closest to the trough get to enjoy it - chances are it is not you), and no one will change it.
"Social welfare", "social politician", and other slogans that you are going to hear are a figleaf for socialism and regulations, some of which constitute bandages at best. The market isn't free. Israel ranks 72nd in the world in terms of ease of starting a business.
Why?
Because you have to bribe all standard regulatory advisors, regulators and other zeros who live in villas because they are close to the trough.
The market here isn't free. It's strangled. The situation won't improve by the way. It'll get worse. Because it can't be otherwise.
I even told Masha that we had to start talking about going abroad, and my friends from abroad started trying to persuade me to leave the Jewish state.
"Inside of two years here, you'll be a millionaire" they promised, because they succeeded there.
I thought all this until... I ran into Moshe Feiglin's activists. The truth is that at first, because he's religious and supports the idea of the Greater Land of Israel, I thought he was just another delusional politician with ideas that in the end wouldn't materialize. A kind of Bennett, just more educated and without the conflict with Lior Schlein.
Then I saw some videos of him and realized that he had exactly what I was looking for personally. That's how I initially decided to vote for him.
But very quickly that led to offering to manage his digital strategy. Although the budget will not be as high as the others, I will enjoy it more because I believe in the product. I will know that I am on the right side of the story, and not on the money-eaters side, under the leadership of He Who Is Too Often Named.
So why Feiglin and the Zehut Party?
1) He's a capitalist. Friends, so long as we do not become a capitalist country, don't expect the economic situation here to improve. It just won't happen. The corruption you cry about is precisely due to the centralized socialism that exists here. The market here is closed! The only area open in Israel is high-tech, so it blooms!
Note that almost no major company can enter any market here if it's not high-tech. You need someone with local ties to the trough to get in.
Want competition in banking? Forget it!
Want a free real estate market without the state controlling every grain of sand? Forget it!
Want cheap electricity? Forget it!
Import food products? Forget it!
Cars without 103% tax? Forget it!
Do you know why 1,500 Israeli businessmen fled to Monaco? Because it's impossible to do business here.
Why does Teva own factories in Eastern Europe? Because the taxes here are so high!
Why does Lieberman himself fly to his tax havens in Cyprus every month? Because he also understands that business doesn't work in Israel.
But hey, they still haven't gotten their hands on the start-ups, so meanwhile everything's good.
Except for those who flee to the United States.
2) Legalization. Enough fighting against plants. Set an age limit, educate yourself about the risks of overuse, and let the population be free.
This time it's not a party like Alei Yarok, whose behavior is a joke. Instead it's being offered by a serious party that has a program for everything.
3) A creative security solution. In the Likud, the slogan "Managing the conflict, no solution" has long been etched on their forehead.
It's true that "Greater Israel" sounds daunting for many of you, especially if you are from the left. But wait a minute... listen carefully. The solution that Zehut presents isn't bad, and it can work. Even if it doesn't work 100%, it can solve some of the problem, and that's progress. After all, none of the clowns in power at the moment are going to change the situation, because with these solutions the situation isn't under their control.
The situation is perpetuated, incidentally, by the UN. Trump was right that "refugee status is the problem," because as long as the Palestinians receive money for this status, they have no interest in changing anything. We just haven't managed to move it from the table. Feiglin passes it on the right, and passes it completely: he does not change their status, but gives them a golden way out.
4) Separation of religion and state. This time it's a religious guy saying that. The integration of religion with the state is another annoying socialist principle that has long since become a type of mafia with a by-the-book protection racket. I'm an atheist. I don't believe in God, but I do keep Jewish tradition on holidays.
I'm glad I'm a Jew and I really have no problem with religion as long as it doesn't come into my house by force.
That's exactly what they understand in Zehut. Don't force the secular to do anything, and we will stop getting mad at religion.
5) I call it "the Singapore model". Singapore is a special country. Their method of building themselves up was simple:
* Learn from each country what it does best (from Israel they learned about the army, for example).
* Do it as well.
The method works. Singapore, a country with medium to low-level human capital, has become one of the most prosperous countries in the world.
What's beautiful about Zehut is that they see successful models in other countries and understand that they need to be implemented here.
How simple!
But it's not so simple if this model harms corruption, and that's why our politicians now don't do it and mainly make excuses.
"The Haredim, the Palestinians, the global warming, the Bibi, the blu, the left," blah blah blah. Nothing but excuses. Enough! If Singapore can do it, then the elite of all European and Arab countries - the Jews, the chosen people (!) - can do it too.
6) We have a problem in our direction and our identity. What is it to be Israeli today? Look at us. We are completely divided and hate each other.
Understand one important thing: multiculturalism does not work. If it worked, there would have been no wars. What does work is to unite people around an idea so that everyone has at least one thing in common. Zehut offers to do just that. That's why the name of the party, Zehut (identity), sounds exactly right to me.
Once we had a common idea: the establishment of the state.
Today the state is established. It's stronger than its enemies, there's no danger to its existence, and it functions. So we started to fight because we don't have a common goal and everyone cares only about his group. Our identity isn't really clear. Abroad we're Israelis, but who are we here?
Feiglin's ideas can begin this unification process, and one of the reasons they can succeed is precisely this: separating religion from state, and focusing on our identity as free Jews. Once there's no coercion, this struggle between the secular and the ultra-Orthodox will end. Let's start from there.
True, there are quite a few people close to the trough (labor unions, the Chief Rabbinate, IEC employees, employees of inefficient government ministries, yeshiva students, etc.) who won't want capitalism here and will fight tooth and nail against change. That's exactly why you should fight back. Because they are fighting for your money. Your money that comes to your pocket!
And I promise you, I'll give you a good fight in the campaign. Even if you disagree with me. Despite my disappointment with the country so far, I live here and care about this place. I want it to be better here. I want to be really free here.
So for me, the next few months are going to be a battle.
If only 50% of my ideas are implemented, you are going to enjoy a much better performance than in the Ashdod elections. Those who are less corrupt and disgusting will benefit.
The first step is homework.
"You win a war before you enter it" --Genghis Khan, on those who prepare well for battle.
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