2022 Inflated Palestinian Demography

by Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettinger

Official Palestinian demographic numbers are highly-inflated, as documented by a study, which has been conducted since 2004:

*500,000 overseas residents, who have been away for over a year, are included in the Palestinian census, contrary to international regulations. 325,000 were included in the 1997 census, according to the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics, and 400,000 in 2005, according to the Palestinian Election Commission. The number grows steadily due to births.

*350,000 East Jerusalem Arabs are doubly-counted – by Israel and by the Palestinian Authority. The number grows daily due to births.

*Over 150,000 Arabs, who married Israeli Arabs are similarly doubly-counted. The number expands daily due to births.

*370,000 Arab emigrants from Judea & Samaria are excluded from the population census of the Palestinian Authority, notwithstanding the annual net-emigration since 1950. For example, 17,958 in 2021, 26,357 in 2019, 15,173 in 2017, 16,393 in 2015 and 24,244 in 2014, as documented (exists and entries) in all the land, air and sea international passages.

*A 32% artificial inflation of Palestinian births was documented by the World Bank (page 8, item 6) in a 2006 audit.

*The Judea & Samaria Arab fertility rate has been westernized: from 9 births per woman in the 1960s to 2.96 births in 2022, as documented by the CIA World Factbook. It reflects the sweeping urbanization, growing enrollment of women in higher education, rising marriage age and the use of contraceptives.

*The number of Arab deaths in Judea & Samaria has been systematically under-reported for political and financial reasons.

*The aforementioned data documents 1.5 million Arabs in Judea and Samaria, when deducting the aforementioned documented-data from the official Palestinian number (3 million).

In 2022: a 68% Jewish majority in the combined area of Judea, Samaria and pre-1967 Israel. In 1947 and 1897: a 39% and 9% Jewish minority. In 2022, the 68% Jewish majority benefits from fertility tailwind and net-immigration, while Arab fertility is Westernized, in addition to net-emigration from Judea and Samaria. No Arab demographic time bomb; but, a Jewish demographic momentum. More data in this article and this short video.

Yoram will be available for speaking engagements in the US during August 25 - September 20, 2022: Impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on Israel's national security; US benefits outweigh foreign aid to Israel; Iran - negotiation or confrontation? President Biden's Middle East policy; US pressure - testing US realism and Israeli leadership; 400-year-old roots of US-Israel kinship; Myth of Arab demographic time bomb; Arab talk vs. Arab walk on Palestinians; Is the Palestinian issue the crux of the Arab-Israeli conflict and a core cause of regional turbulence? Islamic terrorists bite the hands that feed them; Middle East reality vs. Western conventional wisdom, etc.