Political Food for Thought

By Moshe Feiglin

Cheshvan, 5769
October, '09

This article is translated from the Makor Rishon newspaper.

If you have despaired of influencing your future and the future of your country through politics, if you dream of a strictly supernatural redemption, then this article is not for you. This article is for those of you who plan to vote in the upcoming elections.

If you plan to vote, please note the following:

The first piece of political wisdom is that your vote in the upcoming elections will determine who will form the next government. If you are part of the national camp, the decision that you have to make is very simple. What is more important to you? That the Right/religious party that you prefer will have more seats and remain in the opposition? Or that your favorite Right/religious party will have one or two less seats but that the Likud will form the government and possibly include it in the coalition?

It is almost certain that the head of the party that receives the most votes will form the next government. If you don't vote Likud, you are giving that privilege to Tzippi Livni. "Aha!" you say, "but Netanyahu has already said that he prefers a unity government and furthermore, he will just make fools out of the National Union party." That may be his aspiration. But it is not at all certain that he will succeed. What is certain is that Livni will not make a coalition offer to the National Union, and they probably wouldn't want to be part of her government, anyway.

Yes, we have many misgivings about the Likud and what damage it can do when it is in power. But the only real way to make a change is to join the Likud, to vote for the MKs and the Likud chairman and to make your voice heard.

So what do you prefer? A Kadimah government with a National Union party with 8 seats in the opposition? Or a Likud government with a National Union party with 6 seats possibly in the coalition? The choice is in your hands.

The second piece of political wisdom is as follows: The Likud has proven that the notion that if the opposition sits passively and is careful not to make any mistakes, it will necessarily rise to power - is completely wrong. The public has rejected Olmert but not his ideas. In other words, the Likud has not managed to convince anybody that it has a better alternative. That is why as soon as Olmert was replaced by a person who ironically has a clean image, Kadimah once again leads in the polls.

The opposition in Israel has never had a better opportunity to replace the incumbent government. The destruction of Gush Katif, followed by the defeat and humiliation in Lebanon, all topped off with Kadimah scandals of every shape and form had given the Likud a boost of tens of percentage points in the polls. But suddenly, the sure win is not so sure. The Likud has not yet distinguished itself from Kadimah. If it does not delineate its own policies and appeal to its natural pool of voters, we are liable to find ourselves saddled with another Kadimah government.

The potential Likud voters are not in the Center. The Center is occupied by Kadimah and is subject to the manipulations of a plethora of leftist power and financial elites. A survey taken by Dr. Asher Cohen a number of months ago revealed that more than one third of the Israeli public identifies itself as "right of the Likud." 22% even consider themselves extreme right. But the Likud's policy of intentionally blurring its positions distances these potential voters.

That is how the Likud found itself in the opposition and the third of Israelis who define themselves as right of the Likud found themselves in Olmert's government with Lieberman and Shas. Those who voted for the National Union or did not vote at all remained equally irrelevant.

If the Likud wants to win the next elections, it must forget the notion that the race is determined by the Center. Every time that the Likud negates its own policies and tries to be more "centrist", its voters leave in droves and it loses the elections.

Today, Israelis are more rightist than before. But they do not identify the Likud as a party capable of actualizing its values. The Likud must make a sharp right turn, make a commitment that no Jew will be expelled from his home, prepare for the leftist smear campaign and win!