By Moshe Feiglin
11 Tishrei, 5773
Sept. 16, '12
Translated from Ma'ariv's NRG website
Everybody is saying that this coming year will be momentous; that this will be the year when the decision on whether or not to attack Iran will be made; that this will be a decisive year in the political arena; that this year will be engraved in history; that it will be unforgettable.
I am not a prophet and it could be that this year will fit the bill as above, but I am not at all sure that that the predictions are accurate. In my opinion, the upheavals waiting to happen are not about military or political moves. They are part of a much broader strategic structure.
Personally, I do not believe that Netanyahu will order the army to carry out an open attack on Iran. I think that the time to have done so was when Ahmadinijad declared his intention to destroy Israel and began practical preparations to achieve his goal. From the moment that Israel chose the strategy of passing the buck to the nations of the world, the legitimacy of Israeli action against Iran was lost both the world and the Israeli Left agree on that. Israel's repeated attempts to force the world to act are like trying to close the stable doors after the horses have run away. And if the US does define a "red line" for Iran, will it be worth more than President Eisenhower's guarantee?
When Israel retreated from Sinai after the 1956 Sinai Campaign, the Americans signed a written guarantee that they would not allow Egypt to blockade the Straits of Tiran to Israeli shipping. When Naaser invaded the Sinai and blocked the straits, Prime Minister Levi Eshkol called President Lyndon Johnson and reminded him of the US guarantee; the unambiguous, signed "red line" that the Americans provided in exchange for Israel's retreat. "I can't find my copy," LBJ stonewalled over the phone. Now, Israel is pressuring Obama to give us another guarantee that will conveniently get "lost" when it is needed most.
I will be more than happy if my evaluation is wrong. No, I do not want to go to war. Not at all. But more than I fear war, I fear that Israel will slowly disintegrate, making war extraneous. I cannot see how Israel can exist and flourish in the long term in a nuclear Middle East under Iranian hegemony. More than I fear war, I fear that our enemies will not need it.
Will 5773 be an election year in Israel? I'm not sure of that, at all. Right now, the Likud is gearing up for elections. But events of the past few months have shown us that elections do not necessarily happen even when the date is set. And even after that, they may not happen, either. I am much less sure of myself on this than I am on Iran. But I would not be surprised if on Rosh Hashanah of next year, the elections will not yet have taken place.
More than we will be shaping reality in 5773, reality will shape us. We are living in extremely unstable times. The 2000 year old Western civilization has decided to commit suicide. With an average of one child per family and Moslem and Hispanic immigration, the end is simply a matter of time. To make do in Europe, our children will need to know Arabic and Spanish in the US.
These cultural changes are currently expressed in an economic crisis that will make Western economies collapse. Islam will rear its head and the Middle East will return to its natural, pre-World War I state. The mask of modern nation-states will disintegrate and the expanse will once more be tribal. A country that is not Arab will claim hegemony: It will be either Turkey or Iran - if it achieves nuclear capabilities.
This is not prophecy. It is simply an educated evaluation based on the processes that are unfolding before our eyes. Events can play out in any number of ways, but we must prepare for reality to take this direction.
The questions that Israel must ask itself are much broader than the question of a nuclear Iran: Are we preparing the next generation for the new world or are we still committed to the old order? Are we equipping the next generation with a clear answer to the questions of identity and destiny? Are we building a culture of liberty that can overcome the enslavement that is engulfing the world?
Rosh Hashanah is the day that we crown the King of the world. We blow the shofar and declare that we accept His dominion. His dominion and no other.
In the face of all the expected upheavals, it is important to remember where we came from, from where we draw our strength, what we represent and to what we aspire. As long as we remain connected to ourselves, no storm or crisis can overcome us.
Have a blessed 5773.