Politically, it's been quite a week. It began with the Likud Central Committee conference on Sunday and continued with the surprise turnabout of cancelled elections and a unity government just 24 hours later.
On Sunday, it was clear for all to see that the Likud Central Committee is a truly independent body that takes its job seriously. It is full of youthful energy and has no intention of allowing anybody to make decisions behind its back. Anybody who managed to squeeze into the much-too-small hall that was supposed to hold thousands of Committee members realized that something fishy was going on behind their backs.
Nobody present wanted to embarrass the PM, who was roundly applauded after his opening statements. But when Likud Judge Gross (the man behind the "fair" conduct in the recent elections for chairmanship of the Likud) came on stage to preside over the fictitious "vote", the Committee members prevented the absurdity and demanded an orderly, secret ballot.
Just a few days ago, in my weekly article on the NRG website, I wrote, "Nobody really understands why Israel is going to early elections." So when I heard this morning that the election merry-go-round had been cancelled, I was pleased.
True, the cancellation comes at the price of incorporating Kadimah into the government coalition. Kadimah is an unsavory, redundant party. But if this is the price that the PM feels that he must pay to preserve stability and governmental continuity for four full years, I can certainly understand. If this brilliant move will bring about a change in the substandard governing culture in Israel; a culture that dictates that the average government in Israel lasts less than three years then we have all gained a very important and fundamental norm.
The problem with brilliant moves, though, is that they are like floor tiles: The more brilliant they are, the easier it is to slip and break your head.
The power that the government will now have will allow it to make and carry out decisions in a responsible and measured manner without feeling pressured to dance to the drums of the media and the leftist chorus. Two major landmines are now at the new government's doorstep. In both cases, logic, wisdom and justice are at one side, and media populism on the other. This can be the great opportunity to do the right thing, or the great temptation to be swept away in populism's murky stream. The ball is now at the mountain peak: Netanyahu and Mofaz will decide in which direction it will roll.
The two major issues are the threatened destruction of the Ulpana Hill and the draft of the ultra-Orthodox into the army.
It is easy enough to understand that if the corrupt Holyland project was not demolished and certainly not the tens of thousands of illegal Arab homes that nobody dares to touch there is no reason in the world to destroy the Ulpanah Hill neighborhood. The unity government can legislate a solution to the problem and easily absorb the ranting of the leftist chorus and its offshoots that will look on in dismay as the victims of its planned destruction are snatched from its clutches.
The second issue is the Haredi draft. Reality shows that the Haredi demand for appropriate enlistment frameworks is on the rise and has already outpaced the supply that the IDF can provide. This trend will continue; it is impossible to stop it; it is just a matter of creating more and more appropriate frameworks in which the ultra-Orthodox can serve while maintaining their religious observance standards. Actually, there is only one thing that can stop this positive trend: mandatory draft into the current military frameworks, which the Haredi community sees as anti-religious coercion. Whoever wants to be sure that the Haredim will not enlist, should go with the populist option.
This is the challenge of the new government. It has all the opportunities on one hand and is in danger of falling fast and hard on the other. It can succeed and glorify the State of Israel and the Likud, or it can slide and break its head. Just look at what happened to Ariel Sharon and Kadimah.