Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Gaza: A Likely Scenario


Israel is on the brink of difficult times. We will need all of our emotional strength to deal with the expected frustration. Remember that we predicted the oncoming reality some time back. Most important, remember that we have a solution. If we internalize that fact, Israel will look to us for leadership. During the primaries, we saw the first signs of the nation looking to us for leadership. With G-d's help, that appeal will gain momentum.

*


"I heard that you oppose sending ground troops into Gaza. Is that really true?" a leftist Meretz member asked me the other day.

"Yes, it's true," I answered.

"Why?"

"Because we're going to lose," I replied.

"But we're winning," she questioned.

"Let's say that you're the Hamas," I said.

O.k.

"What do you have to do in order to win?"

There was a short silence.
"Nothing," she answered.

"Now you understand," I said to her.

*

We stand in awe at the self-sacrifice, the holiness and the inspiring unity flowing in the veins of our amazing soldiers and in the hearts of the entire nation that - in a surge of national health - has eagerly gone to battle to defeat its enemies. But all of these holy energies are stifled - under the control of leadership that does not believe in our nation, not in our land and not in our G-d and His Torah. As a result, it cannot formulate worthy goals and it cannot win.

The same leadership that destroyed Gush Katif has sent our sons back to fight there. If they had admitted their mistake, we could possibly delude ourselves that the self-sacrifice of our sons would be used to achieve just and intelligent political gain. But sad to say, just the opposite is true. It is much more likely that the result of this Disengagement War (and the ascent of the new government in Washington) will be a new process of retreat.

When one side is fighting for its right to this land while the other side is fighting for its right to defend itself, one side will win the land (G-d forbid) while the other side will (possibly) win the right to defend itself - in Uganda. There is no national leader today in Israel who is willing to simply declare that this is our land. Including Gaza. And if we can't say that, we can't win. The real purpose of the current war is not to conquer our land. The real purpose of this war is to re-adjust the post-Disengagement reality so that we can abandon our land without getting hit with missiles.

And that is impossible.

Eventually, the current euphoria will fade into deep frustration. It is likely that the exasperation will be channeled toward the current government and that support for the Likud will grow. If that happens, more and more forces will be drafted to try and improve Israel's situation in Gaza - or at least to create the illusion of improvement - before the elections. But the result of the combat after the enemy's initial shock wears off will always be the same; defeat - as in the Second Lebanon War. The entanglement that will begin to strangle our country will make it very likely that the elections will not be held next month.

Tuesday, January 13, 2009

Blogging About Feiglin

A War with a Clear Purpose: By the Shilo Musings Blog
http://shilohmusings.blogspot.com/2009/01/war-with-clear-purpose.html

As we so sorely noticed a couple of years ago, Lebanon War II (Olmert's Folly) was a war without a clear plan or a clear purpose. The expulsion required the squandering of military resources on the expulsion of Jews from Gush Katif, Northern Gaza and Northern Shomron. It also necessitated the criminal misuse of political, military and judicial authority as well as the use of the brainwashing talent of the cleverest of the psychologists and the media. A prime minister, a defense minister and a military chief of staff were totally out of their depth to prosecute that war and clueless about what they were trying to do.

The picture is somewhat different now. Barak instead of Peretz is the Defense Minister and Ashkenazi instead of that air force UFO is the chief of staff. The IDF is in a better state of preparedness, and it shows.

BUTwe know that the IDF is the Israel Defense Force and not the Israel Victory Force. At their best they will fight with exceptional competence until the UN ref blows his whistle. The other day I came to the conclusion that the architect of this war Defense Minister Ehud Barak of the Labor Party has a clear goal: to be Defense Minister in the next government whether it is headed by Netanyahu and Likud or Livni and Kadima.

But just as I started to form those words, I encountered the words of a man who, though not a prophet, has shown himself to be a pretty fair analyst and predictor of what is going on around here, Moshe Feiglin. Listen to him in English here:
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/Radio/Player.htm#2#323

He went further than I did and said that Barak is going to be the next Prime Minister. This war is shooting Labor up in the polls. If Labor pulls ahead of Likud and Kadima, Barak will be asked by President Peres (Hebrew for vulture) to form the next government. In any case that means that the Jewish Home (former NRP) and the National Union joined with Marzel and Rabbi Wolpe will both be persona non grata in coalition negotiations. Probably Avigdor Lieberman's Israel Our Home will be the same. Shas will presumably be in the government. The concessions will continue.

Feiglin didn't say the following. I say it. The chances of getting a real right-wing government for an independent Israel are pretty close to nil. The chance of avoiding serious damage rests on getting as many seats for the Likud as possible. If Feiglin is in the Knesset and the Likud forms the government with 36 seats or better, we have a fighting chance. The Americans will press Bibi hard and the people and Feiglin and friends will press back harder from the other side. When Bibi caves in and supports the PLO against Hamas, ignoring the total irrelevance of the difference between two groups of terrorists, Feiglin will look good. Next time Feiglin runs against Bibi for the leadership of the Likud, he will do better. Feiglin is smart with media and does not let his image peak. People will soon see Bibi as an old face.
Let's do the only intelligent thing we can with our ballots and get out there and vote. Let us put clothespins on our noses and vote LIKUD!

The Division that is not Enlisting


As we witness our brave and motivated soldiers marching into battle, it is astonishing to know that there is an entire division that could determine the outcome of the battle to save Israel from its bad leaders - but it is still in storage in the military warehouse.


No, it is not an army division, even though its head was a General Commanding Officer. The division's mission is not even life threatening. So why doesn't it enlist?


The division is made up of the 6000 members of Effie Eitam's Achi party, some of whom were convinced a year ago to leave the Likud to join the newly formed Achi. According to the agreement that Achi signed last week with the Likud, its members may immediately join the Likud and vote without the mandatory 16 month waiting period until they are allowed to vote in Likud elections and without the three year waiting period until they are allowed to run in Likud elections.


6,000 voters is a huge force. If it enters the Likud now, this division will wield tremendous influence on the elections to the all-important Likud committees that will be held after the general elections. The Achi members will also wield indirect influence on the Knesset members of the leadership party of the National Camp - the Likud. The Likud leaders and MKs will know that the ideological public exists and that if they want to win an additional Knesset term, they must represent it.


But instead of finalizing its agreement with the Likud and receiving compensation in exchange for the tremendous boost that Achi has given the Likud, the party prefers to postpone the decision on whether to become Likud members or not until next year. In other words, Effie Eitam prefers that he and all those who registered for Achi will be irrelevant on the most important front that exists today in the leadership battle now being waged in Israel. Knowing the Likud - and particularly Netanyahu - I am convinced that the window of opportunity through which the Achi members can register for the Likud is only until Election Day - at most. Those things that will not be accomplished quietly and quickly before the elections will not happen after the elections. Until Election Day, the Likud will not be able to ignore the existence of the agreement with Achi and will be forced to accept all the Achi members into the party. After the election the Likud will shirk the agreement and will accept no one.


We turn to Effie Eitam and to all those who registered for Achi. Run quicky and register for the Likud en masse. This battle is more important than the goal-less battles being waged in Gaza. It is not life threatening and it only costs 64 shekels for a single and 96 for a couple. Hurry up and register. Before it is too late.

The Disengagement War

By Moshe Feiglin

10 Tevet 5769
Jan. '09

Two healthy and hope-arousing phenomena have become apparent in the Disengagement War being waged at the present. The first phenomenon is the all-pervasive unity and the basic will of the nation to fight for its life. The second phenomenon is the IDF's ability to learn from past mistakes and its generally good level of professionalism. The cries of the Jews expelled from Gush Katif - "Don't call me when you return to Gaza" - have dissipated. Israelis everywhere - expellees included - have put previous bitterness aside and are running to fight in Gaza.

It seems that the feeling of unity is stronger than all criticism - as justified as that criticism may be. The leaders sending our soldiers to fight in Gaza are the same cruel leaders who sealed their hearts to the pleas of the Gush Katif residents. They are the same leaders who brought the current catastrophe upon us. But for the average citizen - none of that matters. The average Israeli does not go to war to fight for Olmert. He goes to war to fight for his country. And that is very beautiful.

But here is where things get complicated. When everyone is running to fight in Gaza without looking back, all that I can do is to try to forget all the articles and analyses that I have written explaining why Israel should not enter Gaza, pray for the soldiers and civilians in the South and pray that maybe I am mistaken and that something good actually will come out of this war.

But only too quickly, my initial assumption is proven correct: If Israel cannot define a real goal for this war, it cannot win. All the IDF's professionalism and the arduous training with which the new Chief of Staff has equipped the army are ineffective if Israel's leaders cannot define the goal of the fighting. He who cannot define the goal cannot win. And if you can't win - it is best not to start fighting. And if you have started fighting nevertheless, you quickly find yourself entrenched in the heart of Gaza in the worst of all positions: You can't win; if you retreat you admit another defeat and a stalemate turns your soldiers into easy targets for kidnappers, suicide bombers and hate-filled murderers.

Why can't Israel define the goal of this war?

In the Sinai Campaign in 1956, the IDF took the city of Gaza by storm. In the battle orders distributed to the soldiers before their attack on Gaza, the following sentences were written:

"The will to win is the precondition for triumph."

"Gaza is a vital organ torn from the State of Israel."

"We will strike the enemy until he is defeated."

"Forward - to battle and triumph."

The person who wrote these words was well aware that all the encouragement and determination to eliminate the threat of the fedayoun (the Hamas of those days) would be worthless without the simple statement that Gaza is ours, "a vital organ torn from the State of Israel."

Gaza is an inseparable part of the Land of Israel. Our roots in Gaza run three thousand years deeper than our roots in Tel Aviv. Those who decide to fight in Gaza but do not intend to restore it to Israeli sovereignty, undermine their claim on Tel Aviv. If you are an American solider fighting to liberate Paris in the name of American values, that is fine and you can justifiably return to your homeland after you win. But if you are fighting for your own homeland, defeat the enemy and then give it up - you have admitted that the land was never yours in the first place and that the enemy's claim to the entire land is justified. If by your actions, you admit that the enemy is right, you will never have peace. Every retreat strengthens the enemy's claim on the entire land and sows the seeds of the next war. It arms the enemy with the most important of all weapons - the sense of justness and hope.

Whoever does not say that "Gaza is a vital organ torn from the State of Israel" cannot win and bring quiet to the residents of Israel's South. It seems that the leaders of the Labor party understood this concept when, after Gaza was recaptured for the second time in the miraculous Six Day War, they established Gush Katif.
Menachem Begin claimed that the Sinai was not part of the Land of Israel, thus justifying its surrender to the Egyptians. All the Grad rockets exploding in Ashdod and Ashkelon have Egyptian fingerprints. Those who supported the 'peace' agreement with Egypt can take credit for this achievement.

But the real turnabout came with the Oslo Accords. That agreement surrendered the heart of Israel to foreign sovereignty in exchange for 'peace.' We didn't get peace but what we learned in the Disengagement is that peace was never the goal. In the Disengagement we learned the hard way that Israel is besieged by powerful forces that seek to disengage from the Land of Israel at any price - even without peace. And as we see today - even at the price of war. They simply do not want the Land of Israel; certainly not its Jewish identity-laden Biblical tracts and the settlers whom they despise.

I call the current war the War of Disengagement because right now we are at the point where the soldiers of the IDF are giving their lives to establish the disengagement principle. Our brave soldiers march into battle with innocence and sanctity to defend their country. But their leaders have maneuvered them into a situation in which they are not fighting for their country, but rather for the ability to disengage from it and not suffer rockets in Tel Aviv.

And that is impossible.

The only possible option that we have now (until the day that we have leadership that believes that this is our Land) is to quickly exit Gaza and to heavily bomb any area from which rockets are launched. The problem, of course, is that Israel is beholden to the values system of the West. If we drop too many bombs on Gaza, our leaders will not be able to visit in London. But that is better than the senseless deaths of our brave soldiers in Gaza.

Saturday, January 03, 2009

Mark Steyn On Gaza: It is Rocket Science

Westerners seem to expect more civilized behavior from Israel than from its adversaries.

Mark Steyn
Mark Steyn
Syndicated columnist

So how was your holiday season? Over in Gaza, whether or not they're putting the Christ back in Christmas, they're certainly putting the crucifixion back in Easter. According to the London-based Arabic newspaper al Hayat, on Dec. 23 Hamas legislators voted to introduce Sharia – Islamic law – to the Palestinian territories, including crucifixion. So next time you're visiting what my childhood books still quaintly called "the Holy Land" the re-enactments might be especially lifelike.

The following day, Christmas Eve, Samuel Huntington died at his home at Martha's Vineyard. A decade and a half ago, in his most famous book "The Clash Of Civilizations," professor Huntington argued that Western elites' view of man as homo economicuswas reductive and misleading – that cultural identity is a more profound behavioral indicator than lazy assumptions about the universal appeal of Western-style economic liberty and the benefits it brings.

Very few of us want to believe this thesis.

"The great majority of Palestinian people," Condi Rice, the secretary of state, said to commentator Cal Thomas a couple of years back, "they just want a better life. This is an educated population. I mean, they have a kind of culture of education and a culture of civil society. I just don't believe mothers want their children to grow up to be suicide bombers. I think the mothers want their children to grow up to go to university. And if you can create the right conditions, that's what people are going to do."

Thomas asked a sharp follow-up: "Do you think this or do you know this?"

"Well, I think I know it," said Secretary Rice.

"You think you know it?"

"I think I know it."

I think she knows she doesn't know it. But in the modern world there is no diplomatic vocabulary for the kind of cultural fault line represented by the Israeli/Palestinian dispute, so even a smart thinker like Dr. Rice can only frame it as an issue of economic and educational opportunity. Of course, there are plenty of Palestinians like the ones the secretary of state described: You meet them living as doctors and lawyers in Los Angeles and Montreal and Geneva … but not, on the whole, in Gaza.

In Gaza, they don't vote for Hamas because they want access to university education. Or, if they do, it's to get Junior into the Saudi-funded, Hamas-run Islamic University of Gaza, where majoring in rocket science involves making one and firing it at the Zionist Entity. In 2007, as part of their attempt to recover Gaza from Hamas, Fatah seized 1,000 Qassam rockets at the university, as well as seven Iranian military trainers.

At a certain unspoken level, we understand that the Huntington thesis is right, and the Rice view is wishful thinking. After all, when French President Sarkozy and other European critics bemoan Israel's "disproportionate" response, what really are they saying? That they expect better from the despised Jews than from Hamas. That they regard Israel as a Western society bound by civilized norms, whereas any old barbarism issuing forth from Gaza is to be excused on grounds of "desperation."

Hence, this slightly surreal headline from The New York Times: "Israel Rejects Cease-Fire, But Offers Gaza Aid." For whatever that's worth. Wafa Samir Ibrahim al-Biss, a young Palestinian woman who received considerate and exemplary treatment at an Israeli hospital in Beersheba, returned to that same hospital packed with explosives in order to blow herself up and kill the doctors and nurses who restored her to health. Well, what do you expect? It's "desperation" born of "poverty" and "occupation."

If it was, it would be easy to fix. But what if it's not? What if it's about something more primal than land borders and economic aid?

A couple of days after Hamas voted to restore crucifixion to the Holy Land, their patron in Tehran (and their primary source of "aid") put in an appearance on British TV. As multicultural "balance" to Her Majesty The Queen's traditional Christmas message, the TV network Channel 4 invited President Ahmadinejad to give an alternative Yuletide address on the grounds that it was a valuable public service to let viewers hear him "speak for himself, which people in the West don't often get the chance to see."

In fact, as Caroline Glick pointed out in The Jerusalem Post, the great man "speaks for himself" all the time – when he's at the United Nations, calling on all countries to submit to Islam; when he's presiding over his international conference of Holocaust deniers; when he's calling for Israel to be "wiped off the map" – or (in his more "moderate" moments) relocated to a couple of provinces of Germany and Austria. Caroline Glick forbore to mention that, according to President Ahmadinejad's chief adviser, Hassan Abbassi, his geopolitical strategy is based on the premise that "Britain is the mother of all evils" – the evils being America, Australia, Israel, the Gulf states, Canada and New Zealand, all the malign progeny of the British Empire. "We have established a department that will take care of England," Mr. Abbassi said in 2005. "England's demise is on our agenda."

So when Britain's Channel 4 says that we don't get the chance to see these fellows speak for themselves, it would be more accurate to say that they speak for themselves incessantly but the louder they speak the more we put our hands over our ears and go "Nya nya, can't hear you." We do this in part because, if you're as invested as most Western elites are in the idea that all anyone wants is to go to university, get a steady job and settle down in a nice house in the suburbs, a statement such as "England's demise is on our agenda" becomes almost literally untranslatable. When President Ahmadinejad threatens to wipe Israel off the face of the map, we deplore him as a genocidal fantasist. But maybe he's a genocidal realist, and we're the fantasists.

The civilizational clashes of professor Huntington's book are not inevitable. Culture is not immutable. But changing culture is tough and thankless and something the West no longer has the stomach for. Unfortunately, the Saudis do, and so do the Iranians. And not just in Gaza but elsewhere the trend is away from "moderation" and toward something fiercer and ever more implacable.

To be fair to President Ahmadinejad's hosts at Channel 4, the "department that will take care of England" probably doesn't get the lion's share of the funding in Tehran. On the other hand, when Hashemi Rafsanjani describes the Zionist Entity as "the most hideous occurrence in history," which the Muslim world "will vomit out from its midst" with "a single atomic bomb," that sounds rather more specific, if not teetering alarmingly on the "disproportionate." Unlike its international critics in North America and Europe, Israel has no margin for error.

Wednesday, December 31, 2008

Post-Election Miracles

Highlights By Moshe Feiglin

Whether I will or will not get a Knesset seat or which slot I occupy on the Likud roster is not of great concern to me. But what has been really difficult since I was bumped to 36th place has been explaining to my supporters why I insist on not appealing the decision in court. After all, wonderful people have been following my lead for years. They have worked with unending dedication and volunteered countless hours of their precious time. Suddenly I stubbornly insist on something that seems to be completely marginal.

"True," they say to me," the High Court is not very popular, but these are the rules of the game. You can't be in politics and play by your own rules." Top notch lawyers volunteer to represent me gratis. Veteran Likud members call me in astonishment, "What do you think you're doing?" Friends who have been with me through thick and thin appeal to my conscience. "You can't abandon all the people who have worked so hard," they plead. "This is not your own private game."

Then there are the people who see my refusal to appeal to the court as a sign of weakness. "Why don't you fight?" they protest. "What? You've given up?" Later, their protests became even more accusing. "O.k., you've made a nice demonstration. But now Michael Ratzon has appealed to the court instead of you. His appeal is based completely on your case. The District judge says that you are completely right: "The Elections Committee did not have the authority to change the outcome of the elections. Clearly the measures they took were directed at the purpose of changing the roster in a way that would distance Moshe Feiglin from the high slot that he had won." (From the decision handed down by District Court Judge Yehudah Zapt). "All that you have to do is to turn to the court and request that its decision (that is about you) be applied to you, as well as to Ratzon."

But I refuse to do it. People who have supported our efforts for years call up in anger. And worst of all, people throughout the country call and say, "We stood in line for hours to vote for you. We feel betrayed."

And then G-d performs another of a long string of elections miracles. The Likud appeals to the High Court and announces that if the appeal is rejected, it will revert to the original Likud roster - in other words, I would be back in the 20th slot. Once again, the judicial process is exhausted despite my insistence and without the necessity for me to appeal to the 'enlightened' dictator.

On the eighth night of Chanukah, G-d removes the shadows of doubt. It turns out that our Father in Heaven directed us and the intuition of Michael Fuah and myself was right on the mark. If I had listened to all those urging me to appeal to the court, I would still have remained in the 36th slot - but without the possibility of expressing my lack of faith in the High Court.

Israel needs a revolution - not Knesset marionettes beholden to the dictatorship. If I now enter the Knesset from the 36th slot, it will be perfectly legitimate for me to lead the faith based revolution. And if I do not get into the Knesset, we will continue to lead the faith based revolution from where we are today. "You know," a prominent journalist said to me, "there is something unique about you. Every other politician who is no longer in the Knesset becomes immediately irrelevant. But with you, it makes no difference. You are always relevant."

The truth is that the faith based revolution is progressing quite well outside the Knesset. As a result of my primaries race, the faith based approach has reached almost every Israeli home. It will continue to take hold and develop either within the Knesset or without - simply because Israel's reality necessitates genuine Jewish leadership. It is the only relevant alternative that we have.