*While most of the attention to the November 2024 election is centered around the Presidential election, the outcome of the November 2024 Congressional election - 435 House seats and 34 Senate seats - will greatly impact US national security and foreign policy, in general, and US-Israel relations and US policy toward Iran’s Ayatollahs, in particular.
*According to the US Constitution and to a litany of precedents, both Chambers of Congress – which constitute the most authentic representation of the US constituency - are co-equal to the Executive, as derived from a series of Constitutional checks and balances. Thus, the US Congress is the most powerful Legislature in the world, possessing the power of the purse, and the muscle to check, defy, oversee and overrule (the Administration), direct, investigate, suspend, fund and defund the Executive, as well as to formulate domestic, foreign and national security policies.
Secretary of State, Jim Baker, used to complain that “you cannot conduct foreign policy with 535 Secretaries of State on Capitol Hill.”
*The impact of the November 2024 Congressional election will be measured by the resulting clout of the "Progressive Democrats," who currently number 96 – out of 212 Democrats - in the House of Representatives and 1 – out of 51 Democrats - in the Senate.
*The “Progressive” worldview, which is directly related to US-Israel relations and US policy toward Iran’s Ayatollahs includes the following:
<A drastic cut in the defense budget, impacting the US’ posture of deterrence;
<Multinational/cosmopolitan - rather than unilateral/independent – foreign and national security policy;
<Policy coordination with the UN, international organizations and Europe;
<Sacrificing Middle East reality on the altar of alternate reality (e.g., Islamic terrorism driven by despair, not by anti-US fanatic, religious ideology);
<Ignoring the dominance of fanatic ideology in shaping the Ayatollahs’ policy;
<Assuming that generous diplomatic and financial gestures could moderate terror entities (e.g., Iran’s Ayatollahs), irrespective of their track record. Ruling out regime-change and the military option, thus bolstering terrorism.
<Embracing Iran's Ayatollahs and the Muslim Brotherhood, taking lightly their clear and present threat to the US homeland security, and devaluing pro-US Arab regimes, which are threatened by the Ayatollahs and the Brotherhood;
<Disregarding the rogue Palestinian intra-Arab track record - which has made Palestinians a role model of intra-Arab terrorism and treachery - and the adverse impact of the proposed Palestinian state on US interests;
<Ignoring the benefits of Israel's control of the Golan Heights and the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria to regional stability, the safety of pro-US Arab regimes, and US interests;
<Ignoring Israel's role as a force and dollar-multiplier for the US taxpayer;
<Dismissing the Biblical roots of the US Constitution, civil rights, civic system and culture.
*Depending on the outcome of the Congressional election, the next Chairperson of the House Full Appropriations Committee – which is the most crucial committee for US-Israel cooperation, currently chaired by the staunchly pro-Israel Congressman Tom Cole (R-OK) – could be Congresswoman Rosa DeLauro (D-CT), a founding member of the Progressive Caucus and a systematic supporter of the proposed Palestinian state, while criticizing Israeli presence in Judea and Samaria, condemning the October 7, 2023 Hamas terrorism, but calling on Israel to abort its offensive against the perpetrators of this terrorism.
Moreover, the Chairperson of the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense – which appropriates much of the US-Israel defense cooperation and currently chaired by Congressman Ken Calvert (R-CA), a systematic supporter of enhanced cooperation with Israel – could be Congresswoman Betty McCullum (D-MN), who is one of the fiercest critics of Israel on Capitol Hill. The Chairperson of the House Appropriations Subcommittee on State and Foreign Operations – which appropriates foreign aid and is currently chaired by Congressman Diaz-Balart (R-FL), a major supporter of upgraded collaboration with Israel – could be the pro-Israel Congresswomen Grace Meng (D-NY) or Lois Frankel (D-FL), who would be pressured by the “Progressives.”
The Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee – currently chaired by the systematic promoter of deeper US-Israel cooperation, Congressman Mike McCaul (R-TX) – could be the non-“Progressive” Congressman Gregory Meeks, who embraces the State Department’s worldview, supporting the proposed Palestinian state and calling upon Israel to abort its military offensive against Hamas. Furthermore, the Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on the Middle East – currently chaired by the staunchly pro-Israel Congressman Joe Wilson (R-SC) – could be chaired by Congressman Dean Phillips (D-MN), a lukewarm supporter of Israel, who would be under pressure from “Progressives” to playdown his support of Israel.
While the “Progressive” Caucus has a very low profile in the Senate, the outcome of the election (with 23 Democrats and 11 Republicans defending their Senate seats) could yield a Republican majority, which would dramatically impact the co-equal power of Congress, when arm wrestling the President (if the Republican majority is sustained in the House).
A Senate change of balance of power would also switch the Chairmanship of the Senate Full Appropriations Committee (the most powerful Senate committee) from Senator Patty Murray (D-WA), a Foggy Bottom-like critic of Israel, to Senator Suzan Collins (R-ME), a supporter of enhanced US-Israel cooperation, who opposes any delay in the supply of military systems to Israel. In addition, the Chairmanship of the critical Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense (funding US-Israel defense cooperation) could shift from Senator Jon Tester (D-MT) to Senator Susan Collins (R-ME), both are pro-Israel, who opposed the 2015 nuclear accord with Iran’s Ayatollahs. Also, the Chairmanship of the pivotal Appropriations Subcommittee on State and Foreign Operations could switch from Senator Chris Coon (D-DE), who echoes State Department’s criticism of Israel, to Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC), a harsh critic of the State Department and a staunch supporter of Israel.
Moreover, the Chairmanship of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee could switch from retiring Senator Ben Cardin (D-MD) to Senator Jim Risch (R-ID), both are supporters of upgraded US-Israel cooperation, who opposed the 2015 nuclear accord. However, a change of majority would change the Chairmanship of the Foreign Relations Subcommittee on the Middle East from Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT), a State Department like critic of Israel, to Senator Todd Young (R-IN) a steady supporter of enhanced US-Israel relations.
*A focus on the November 2024 Congressional election is advisable in light of the power vested in Congress by the US Constitution, aiming to preclude excessive Executive power through checks and balances, limited government and a strict separation of powers. Therefore, US presidents are not super-legislators, nor do they determine the congressional agenda or congressional leadership. The President proposes, but Congress disposes. The President is the commander-in-chief, but only as authorized and appropriated by Congress, which has been a systematic supporter of the mutually-beneficial US-Israel two-way-street cooperation.
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