Friday, March 27, 2020

Israel: Maybe the Dog Will Talk




Editorial of The New York Sun | March 27, 2020

Prime Minister Netanyahu’s astonishing emergence with an agreement to remain the prime minister in a national unity government of Israel reminds us of the yarn about the rabbi, the cossack, and the cossack’s dog. It seems the rabbi is out for a walk when he encounters a cossack officer and his dog. The cossack draws his weapon, points it at the rabbi, and pulls back the hammer.

“Don’t shoot, don’t shoot,” the rabbi cries, throwing up his arms.

“Why not?” demands the cossack.

“Because,” the rabbi exclaims, “if you give me a year, I will teach your dog to talk.”

The cossack gapes in amazement.

“You can teach a dog to talk?” he says.

“Yes, if you give me a year.”

“It’s a deal,” the cossack declares. “You have three hundred and sixty five days. If the dog doesn’t talk, your life is mine.”

When the rabbi arrives home, the rebbetzin weeps and wails.

“Don’t worry, my rebbetzin,” the rabbi tells her. “A least three things could happen in a year.”

“Like what?” his wife says.

“Well,” the rabbi replies, “one thing is that the cossack could die. Another is that I could die.”

“And the third?” his wife keens.

“Well,” the rabbi says, “there’s always the possibility that the dog will talk.”

That, it seems from a distance, is the kind of calculation Prime Minister Netanyahu has made in agreeing to limit his time as premier in the new government to 18 months. After that, he has to turn over the top job to General Gantz, whose party, known as Blue & White, won the second biggest bloc of seats in the Knesset behind Mr. Netanyahu’s Likud. It must seem like the beginning of the end for Israel’s longest serving premier.

And yet, a lot can happen in a year and a half. Mr. Netanyahu, after all, is said to have given Mr. Gantz a binding commitment of some sort that he will step down in a year-and-a-half. It’s unclear, though, what the binding factor is or that the Knesset could endow such an pact with legislative status. A signed private agreement, then, like that between two litigants? That would be very odd in a political situation.

Supposedly this will become clearer in a day or two, but it isn’t now. In theory, Mr. Gantz doesn’t have to worry. If Mr. Netanyahu betrays the deal, Mr. Gantz could pull out of the coalition with him, rejoin the 61-vote anti-Netanyahu faction, and bring Mr. Netanyahu down in a vote of confidence. Yet who knows what the political constellation will be by then, or whether all of Mr. Gantz’s 15-man faction, many of whom would by then be enjoying ministerial status, would pull out with him?

Then again, too, if Mr. Netanyahu sticks to his promise, Mr. Gantz will be in a bizarre position. He, the very recent leader of a party that was the Likud’s main and bitter competitor, will now be governing as, in essence, a Likud prime minister while much of his former party will now be the opposition to him. How this would play out is impossible to foresee, but it’s hard to imagine Mr. Gantz could govern effectively in such a case.

Which brings us back to the furshlugginer dog. Imagine that it’s October 2021. Mr. Gantz has been prime minister for a month. He’s in an impossible situation. The Likud that is his now mainstay doesn’t really like or trust him and wishes Mr. Netanyahu were back in power. Mr. Netanyahu himself has, by virtue of his agreement with Mr. Gantz, avoided any legislation that would prevent a criminally indicted politician from being prime minister. His court case, though, is dragging on (it won’t be over until 2024 or ’25).

Mr. Gantz’s former Blue-and-White allies now hate him as much as they hate Mr. Netanyahu; and in a vote of no confidence, his government falls after a brief month in power. There are new elections. Whom does the Likud choose to head its list if not Mr. Netanyahu, who, having successfully led the country through the corona crisis, wins a sweeping victory? In other words, it’s entirely possible that the confounded dog will learn to talk.

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