Thursday, March 24, 2022

Russian invasion relevance to US policy on Iran

by Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettinger

Does the US realize the relevance of the Russian invasion of Ukraine to its current negotiations with Iran's Ayatollahs, or does it ignore the Russia-Iran connection?

For example:

*The Russian invasion of Ukraine exposes the substantial gap between the norms, logic and state-of-mind of the democratic US and the despotic, ruthless Russia (e.g., the willingness to sustain economic cost, in order to advance a rogue vision), as it is between the US and the fanatically religious, despotic, ruthless and megalomaniacal Iran's Ayatollahs.

*The Russian invasion sheds light on the dramatic gap between global reality and Western conventional wisdom, as also demonstrated by the gap between the Iranian reality and US policy toward Iran, which failed to assess the nature of the 1979 Islamic Revolution and the consequences of the 2015 JCPOA (which intensified, rather than moderated, regional and global Iranian subversion, terrorism, drug trafficking and proliferation of advanced military technologies and systems).

*The Russian invasion wakes up US policy makers and public opinion molders to the fragile, unpredictable and explosive reality of the world, contrary to the misperception of a relatively-peaceful "new world order" free of major wars and ground invasions, which has recently dominated US conventional wisdom and attitude toward the rogue regime of the Ayatollahs in Iran.

*The Russian invasion exposes the unrealistic assumption that the diplomatic option supersedes the military option in the struggle between global democracies and rogue regimes and organizations, such as the negotiation with Iran's Ayatollahs.

*The Russian invasion underlines the fallacy of the US assumption that the waiving of the mioitary option (e.g., against Iran's Ayatollahs) preventsw military escalation; while in fact, it erodes the US' posture of deterence, thus whetting the appetite of rogue regimes, and therefore inensifying miliary escalation.

*The Russian invasion underscores the quixotic nature of the assumption – which is at the foundation of the negotiation with Iran's Ayatollahs - that most of the globe is amenable to Western values of peaceful-coexistence, democracy, human rights and good-faith negotiation. Iran and other rogue regimes have demonstrated that they are not!

*The Russian invasion reveals the contradiction-in-terms between the track record of rogue regimes – such as Iran's Ayatollahs - and the assumption that they could be good-faith negotiators.

*The Russian invasion accentuates the centrality of a military posture of deterrence in the face of rogue entities – such as Iran's – which adhere to a deeply-rooted fanatic vision, as demonstrated by their systematic anti-Western school curriculum, religious sermons, domestic and external track record.

*The Russian invasion emphasizes the critical role played by history in coalescing national ethos, vision and policies. It is also evident in the rogue conduct of Iran's Shiite Ayatollahs, which is a derivative of a series of historical milestones, such as the 1,400-year-old ferocious Sunni-Shiite confrontation; the 680 AD Battle of Karbala which is the "big bang" of the Sunni-Shiite conflict and the role model for the Shiite spirit of revolution, revenge, sacrifice and martyrdom; the 1501 AD declaration of Shiism as Iran's official religion; and the 1979 Islamic Revolution, which was driven by the aforementioned milestones. The Islamic Revolution has been the chief inspiration for Iran's daily rogue conduct from the Persian Gulf through Africa and Latin America, all the way to the US-Mexico border.

*The Russian invasion forewarns the West to be wary of rogue regimes, which adhere to the policy of subjugation and submission in Eastern Europe, as well as in the Middle East, where Iran's Ayatollahs have systematically and proactively attempted to topple every "apostate" Sunni Muslim regime (especially Saudi Arabia), and to bring to submission the "non-believer" West (especially "the Great American Satan").

*The Russian invasion is a reminder that leopards don't change spots, only tactics.

Ignoring the relevance of the Russian invasion of Ukraine to the US' negotiations with Iran's Ayatollahs would be tantamount to ignoring the lesson of the US/Spanish philosopher, George Santayana: "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it!"

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